This whitepaper explains why ACOs keep getting blindsided at year-end reconciliation and how predictive-first operations eliminate financial surprises before they happen.
The core problem is timing. ACOs are managing care based on claims data that’s 6-9 months old. High-cost events happening right now won’t show up in analytics until Q3 or Q4, when there’s no time left to intervene. By the time CMS sends the reconciliation report, the financial outcome was locked in months ago.
The paper breaks down why reactive management fails under the CMS LEAD model, where performance timelines are tighter and accountability is sharper. It examines how fragmented systems, manual forecasting, and lagging data create a perfect recipe for year-end surprises, and why traditional ACO operations can’t survive in this environment.
Download this whitepaper to learn how predictive ACOs achieve 99% forecast accuracy months before CMS releases final data, enabling leadership to see savings or losses by Q2, identify cost drivers with precision, and intervene early enough to change outcomes instead of explaining them.